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بالعلم ..تبني الاوطان

Examining the Stationarity of Main Economic Variables in the Libyan Economy

(Dr. Aboagila Otman Ahmed Alkoum - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Zawia, Libya.)
ملخص

This research tests the stationarity of main economic variables using historical time series data, as well as to determine the significant structural breaks in Libyan economic data during the period from 1980-2011. The time series includes money supply, real income, domestic price level, exchange rate, imported inflation, expected inflation, and output gap. The results of the LM unit root test with two structural breaks showed that there is additional evidence against the null hypothesis of unit root compared to the results of traditional unit root tests. More specifically, results of the endogenous two-break LM unit root test indicated that domestic price level, exchange rate, imported inflation, and expected inflation are trend stationary when the structural break is considered under both the null and alterative hypotheses at un-known time in trend function. On the contrary, applying the LM unit root test with two structural breaks apparently indicated that the following two variables: i.e. money supply and real income are non-stationary during the period of study.